Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Who will win the Democratic Presidential Nomination?








The Democratic Presidential nomination couldn't get any closer. With well over half of the pledged delegates awarded, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are still neck-to-neck in in the race. While Hillary claims to have won the heavily populated states like New York, New Jersey and California, Obama claims to have won twice as many states, East, West North, South and across the heartland of America. The Potomac primaries earlier this week sealed Obama's string of victories last week giving him a 8 state winning streak. Obama is also likely to win Wisconson and Hawaii next week based on the fact that the state voter demographic favors him. That along with Hillary's recent campaign shuffle brings concern to Hillary's supporters that Obama has gained the momentum needed to win the nomination. However, Hillary is quick to point out that her focus is on the big state primaries of Texas and Ohio in early March, where many more delegates are at stake.

Even if the remaining states divide up the delegates by a 55 to 45 ratio either way, neither Hillary nor Obama will make the magic 2025 delegates needed for the nomination. Pundits claim that the nomination will then come down to the "superdelegates" in that case. These are unpledged delegates comprising of leaders, past and present and party activists in the Democratic party. 800 superdelegates are up for grabs and currently Hillary Clinton has more support from superdelegates than does Obama. However, superdelegates are free to change their minds at any point and are only considered final during their vote at the national convention. Having superdelegates decide the party's nomination at the convention will be quite an affair. It will truly be a "brokered" convention, where back room negotiations will be the name of the game.

It is anyone's guess who will eventually win this year's Democratic nomination. Recent buzz in the media seems to be pointing to Obama as he is gaining momentum and therefore likely to win but I wouldn't underestimate the Clinton "machine". I personally also think that the winds of change are in Obama's favor (no pun intended) but I would be happy with either candidate making the nomination.