It's almost over - FINALLY!

With less than 36 hours to go before the first polls close, one of the most historic and consequential US Presidential elections is almost over. It seems only like yesterday when this all began, even though it's been a whole 2 years. It is the first time I have really followed politics this closely, particularly US politics and I have learned a great deal about the inner workings of American democracy. A brief recap will refresh my ardent readers on the long but important journey this election has taken before I pose my last but most important poll of the year!

Let's start with the Democratic party. When Hillary Clinton announced in 2006 that she would run for President, who would have imagined that an African-American named Barack Obama would upset her hopes of becoming the first female President? John Edwards, joined in for fun without much of a chance in my opinion. Bitterly fought till the very end, Hillary maintained in defiance that she was better equipped to head the Democratic party to victory in 2008. Not realizing early that Barack's message of change would win over voters, she lost the first Primary in Iowa. Quickly, she tried shifting her campaign's focus from experience to change and managed a victory in New Hampshire but it was only the beginning of an uphill battle from there. Ignoring small states and assuming that everything would be over after Super Tuesday, she went on the offensive pulling out the Clinton attack which mostly backfired on her. Without a nomination after Super Tuesday, her campaign lost focus and Barack seized the lead with a string of victories after Super Tuesday. The subsequent splitting of delegates from Florida and Michigan by the DNC sealed the deal for Obama. On the Republican side, things were a lot different. The playing field included way too many players, McCain, Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani being the prominent four. Initially, it didn't seem like any one candidate had the party's clear support with Huckabee winning Iowa, McCain New Hampshire and Romney Michigan. Huckabee lacked the support of moderate Republicans, McCain of the right and Romney of non-Mormons. But after Super Tuesday, it was the Maverick that prevailed again after an almost dead campaign a few months earlier.

Once the nominations were in place, the next big event was the choice of VP for each candidate. Barack, understanding his weakness in experience chose Biden to augment his platform. McCain, in keeping with his Maverick spirit chose Palin, a relatively unknown Governor of Alaska and first female VP nominee in the Republican party. McCain's strategy of Palin as his running mate worked for him soon after the RNC with a boost of support from the right-wing and he pulled ahead in the polls. The economy, which has been on the brink of recession for months, had taken center-stage as the number 1 issue in the election. In October, the credit crisis finally showed its ugly face with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the market crashed in ways not seen since 1987. Suspending his campaign, McCain returned to Washington to solve he credit crisis only to damage his reputation as erratic even further. He lost his lead in the polls among moderates and even in Republican stronghold states like Virginia. All the while the Obama-Biden team continued to focus on tying McCain to Bush, and claiming that a McCain victory would bring nothing but more failed economic policies in a 3rd Bush term.

With a day left before it's all over, neither candidate is taking anything for granted as both candidates are pushing their final messages hard in stronghold Republican swing states, hoping to woo undecideds to vote for them. The polls indicate a 7-8 point lead for Obama and based on the electoral college system, he is likely to make the 270 needed to become the next President. I had predicted in February that the election would end up being a battle between Obama and McCain (read my post on it). Not surprisingly, my prediction on this election outcome is an Obama victory.